It’s hard to get good mobile platform sales data on the web (I see a lot of conflicting reports)
I sometimes wonder about this too.
@Carlos:
I’m glad that you are not going to focus on Symbian, but just for the sake of healthy debate…
Using South East Asia as an example; sales of Symbian “phones” are still strong and easily outsell Android and iOS. Sales of high end Symbian “smartphones” are weak. I imagine this would be the same in China, India, Africa, ME, Latin America, and parts of Europe (developing economies). The majority of these markets (98% in some cases) are prepaid, and the users don’t go for postpaid/contract plans.
The lower end of the market is dominated by Nokia. The problem is that these handsets are not sold with bundled data plans, and the people that buy them have no intention of using data or making app purchases - they just want a cheap phone to make calls and send texts. A low end Nokia would be $US25 for a Java handset and $US100 for a Symbian handset. By comparison, an iPhone 3GS wouldn’t be less than $US500.
So if you were a phone vendor, Nokia is still a relevant player, and you could definitely shift their units. From an app developers perspective which is what Ansca (and we) would care about - it looks dead.
Using flaky data: number of iPhones sold worldwide to date is 50+ million. In terms of worldwide phone users - thats barely a blip on the radar.
Let’s assume (and the telcos we work with are assuming some of this):
- Mobile data costs continue to plummet (economies of scale)
- Prepaid plans start receiving free data volumes with every top up (already happening as data prices are factored in)
- Prepaid plans receive unlimited trickle data beyond their cap (already happening)
- Mobile data provisioning on handset becomes automatic via SIM (already happening)
- Nokia introduces a coherent marketplace for apps (they’re trying)
- Nokia allows operators to control localised app marketplace
- Nokia and Operators create incentive programs for in-country developers to create localised content (already happening)
- Nokia allows app/subscription charging by deducting operator prepaid credit (on-net) instead of charging to credit card or paypal (off-net)
- Nokia standardises their device profile to two resolutions and interface (S60 footprint touchscreen or keyboard)
- Base cost of above handset is reduced to mass market affordability
Suddenly this irrelevant base of Symbian users has access to affordable mobile data services, a marketplace for apps, localised apps, and prepaid charging for purchases.
With regards to points 6,7,8 Nokia doesn’t just make phones, they make network equipment. They’re hard wired into many mobile networks around the world with SMSCs, MMSCs, LBSCs, USSDCs, mobile gateways, charging gateways, profiling systems, HLRs etc etc. They have network level access that Apple, Google, and Microsoft do not.
Due to the iphone, operators are losing control of the customer experience and no longer have a monopoly on charging and billing. They want to get this back.
My point to this oversized post…
My opinion; I would still keep my eye on Symbian. Smartphones in their current form are not for everyone. There is still a market for users that want a low cost phone with some data/app functionality. Operators want to regain some control over user experience and service charging. Nokia has an installed user/network base to leverage on and capture this market.
Don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t use a Symbian device if you gave it to me for free, and Nokia dropped the ball big time and are struggling to catch up. But I still think they have an opportunity to make a comeback.
They didn’t obtain the worlds largest share of handsets by making high end devices, they obtained it by flooding the market with functional low value handsets - and that’s something Apple will NEVER do. We just need an environment where the masses have access to a low cost app capable phone with capped cost data and on-net charging.
Mobile data access will be booming in the next decade for developing countries as the cost of rolling out phyiscal infrastructure is inhibitive and in some cases not possible - Cambodia for example is going all wireless because of the proliferation of land mines. And in many cases individuals can’t afford a computer but they can afford a phone.
[EDIT: access to “free” mobile data services should have been “affordable”] [import]uid: 11393 topic_id: 4557 reply_id: 15399[/import]